Anthropic Research: 2028 — Two Scenarios for Geopolitical AI Dominance and Recommendations for Closing Smuggling Loopholes

Anthropic published on May 14, 2026, the policy paper “2028: Two Scenarios for Global AI Leadership” — a formal position explicitly arguing that democracies must maintain AI leadership over authoritarian regimes, particularly China, to prevent AI-enabled repression at scale and protect national security.

What are the two scenarios for 2028?

Scenario One: Democratic Dominance. US frontier models maintain a 12-24 month intelligence lead over the competition. American AI becomes the backbone of global infrastructure. Democratic values shape AI governance globally through a self-reinforcing cycle that strengthens the coalition advantage — more users means more fine-tuning, more revenue for R&D, more advantage.

Scenario Two: Competitive Parity. Chinese AI laboratories reach near-frontier capability through distillation attacks (learning from US model outputs) and chip smuggling that circumvents export controls. The CCP rapidly deploys AI across economic and military domains, competing globally on price and availability. Democratic security advantages erode.

What three vulnerabilities does the paper specifically identify?

The paper names three concrete channels through which China remains competitive despite its compute disadvantage:

1. Smuggled chips — illegal diversion of export-controlled semiconductors. Explicitly cites the $2.5 billion Supermicro case as an example of the scale of the problem
2. Offshore access — remote data centers in Southeast Asia give Chinese labs access to US compute without physical hardware transfer
3. Distillation attacks — systematic harvesting of US model outputs to replicate capabilities through student-teacher learning

What three policy recommendations does Anthropic make?

Anthropic proposes three coordinated actions: (1) tighten export controls on semiconductors, manufacturing equipment, and offshore data center access; (2) defend innovations through legislation that explicitly prohibits distillation attacks and enables threat intelligence sharing between labs; (3) champion American AI exports with a strategy that explicitly pushes American AI into global markets before China captures the infrastructure.

The paper references “Mythos Preview April 2026” as an indicator of acceleration — Firefox fixed more security bugs in one month than throughout all of 2025, which Anthropic sees as a breakaway opportunity window in which democracies must act before the advantage closes.

This approach is significant because it positions Anthropic as a policy actor, not merely a tech lab. It complements the Anthropic-Gates Foundation $200M partnership announced the same day — both moves signal Anthropic as an infrastructure player with a global mission.